A deduction is a conclusion you reach from evidence — not a fact somebody told you. To make a deduction about a finished action, use a modal verb followed by have and a past participle.
The modal you choose shows how sure you are. Move down the table from complete certainty that something happened to complete certainty that it didn't.
| Form | Meaning | Example |
|---|---|---|
| must have + p.p. | it definitely happened | She must have missed the train. |
| may / might / could have + p.p. | it possibly happened | He might have forgotten the date. |
| may not / might not have + p.p. | it possibly did not happen | They may not have arrived yet. |
| couldn't / can't have + p.p. | it definitely did not happen | You can't have finished already! |
1 · could have and couldn't have are not opposites in strength. Positive could have sits with may and might at "possibly". But the negative jumps all the way to full certainty.
2 · could have has a second meaning that is not deduction at all: an unrealized past ability or opportunity — something that was possible but never happened. Only the context tells you which meaning is intended.
Questions invert the modal and the subject; have and the participle stay in place. Short answers keep the modal + have.
In natural speech have is reduced to a weak /əv/, which sounds exactly like of. That is a pronunciation feature only — of is never correct in writing.